The Philippines in the New Geopolitics of Asia

The lab started off with an assessment of the current geopolitical realities and policy challenges the Philippines are facing. The crisis of multilateralism and a fragile regional order, questions around the post-pandemic recovery and vaccine diplomacy, and concerns over China’s rise as well as uncertainty when it comes to the future role of the United States in the region featured prominently in the discussion.

With key current issues facing the Philippines mapped as a first step, an exercise in futures thinking was conducted to discuss emerging long-term trends and to assess their likelihood and potential impact. In addition to the great power rivalry and seemingly accelerating arms race in the region, several driving forces were identified that are likely to have an impact on the country’s future trajectory: the rapid automation of conventional manufacturing and slowly eroding comparative advantage of cheap labour; a regional economy that is increasingly organized in competing trade blocs; the social-ecological transformation of mega cities such as Manila and a widening urban-rural divide; demographic and technological changes; as well as rising social inequality and declining workers’ rights.

In the concluding session, participants collectively came up with strategic options and policy recommendations to help the Philippines come out on top of the key trends transforming the region. One important pillar concerned the effective management of the Philippines’ difficult external environment, maintaining a neutral stance and proactively widening foreign policy options by engaging with like-minded smaller and middle powers in the region in order to leverage the country’s unique strategic geography. Other core pillars revolved around future-proofing the economy, upholding international norms and rules, and devising tailored industrial policies while simultaneously promoting regional connectivity. Foreign policy success – all stakeholders agreed – lastly also requires equitable and inclusive development opportunities for all, in the context of a stable domestic framework that upholds democracy and good governance. Building broad societal alliances and formulating a common, positive narrative for the future will be decisive to help the Philippines grow further: at home, as a regional and as a global player.