09.05.2025

India in the Geopolitics of Asia: Four Scenarios and Strategic Options

India is navigating a volatile global order driven by power rivalries, economic shifts, tech disruption, and climate change. At the India Scenario Building and Policy Lab, experts applied futures thinking to map key megatrends and strategies to bolster India’s resilience and autonomy.

The FES Office for Regional Cooperation in Asia, in collaboration with the FES India Office, hosted a two-day national lab in New Delhi. A diverse group of thought leaders and strategic experts convened to discuss and analyse the geopolitical and geo-economic situation in India. The Executive Education team of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy facilitated the group's discussions. Through futures thinking and the use of a 2x2 scenario matrix methodology, participants explored how India could potentially navigate emerging uncertainties over the next five to ten years. From these discussions, the experts jointly identified key megatrends shaping India’s external and internal environment, and crafted possible future scenarios. Following this, the group devised strategic options to guide India through a rapidly evolving global order and to strengthen the country’s resilience and strategic autonomy.

The group identified a range of geopolitical and geo-economic megatrends that will influence India’s trajectory. One of the most prominent is the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China. This strategic competition is playing out in multiple arenas from trade and technology to maritime security and requires India to balance external alignments while asserting its strategic interests. Rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, particularly the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait, were flagged as critical risks that could have regional repercussions for India. India’s participation in informal coalitions such as the Quad, along with its engagement in regional maritime partnerships, is becoming increasingly central to its strategic calculus.

On the economic front, participants noted growing trade fragmentation and the importance of regional integration through free trade agreements and comprehensive economic partnership agreements. India’s efforts to diversify supply chains, enhance its semiconductor ecosystem, and secure critical minerals were seen as essential steps to reduce dependence on external actors. Currency volatility and concerns about the long-term stability of the US dollar were raised, particularly considering broader shifts in global economic leadership.

Technology and energy sovereignty emerged as top priorities. India’s ambition to lead in artificial intelligence, digital public infrastructure, and renewable energy requires coordinated investment and innovation policy. The importance of labour mobility was emphasised, as well as inclusive economic growth to fully harness India’s demographic advantage. In parallel, the challenge of overcapacity from China and global protectionist trends could restrict India’s access to key export markets if not proactively addressed.

Climate change was identified as another long-term megatrend that could significantly impact India’s development prospects. From food and water security to the stability of coastal regions, environmental risks will require forward-looking and adaptive governance strategies. Participants stressed that without sustained investments in education, skills, and social infrastructure, India’s internal capacity to respond to these external shocks will remain limited.

All these trends are deeply intertwined with the need for institutional agility and political stability. Without effective governance, India’s ability to navigate the shifting currents of great-power rivalry, technological transformation, economic decoupling, and climate disruption will be significantly constrained. The discussions at the FES India National Lab highlighted the urgency of anticipating these shifts and preparing the foundations for India’s long-term strategic resilience.

Based on the megatrends discussed, participants developed four possible future scenarios for India over the next five to ten years, as shown in the image below.

To read more about each group’s scenarios and strategic options, please click on the scenario names below:

Scenario A: Good times in Babylon / Get rich, die young

Scenario ฺB: India’s Goldilocks moment – neither too hot, nor too cold

Scenario C: High walls, higher fences

Scenario D: No pain, no gain

Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Asia

Bringing together the work of our offices in the region, we provide you with the latest news on current debates, insightful research and innovative visual outputs on geopolitics, climate and energy, gender justice, trade unions and social-ecological transformation.

News