16.09.2024

Philippines in the Geopolitics of Asia: Four Scenarios and Strategic Options

Amidst the escalating US-China tensions, the Philippines faces a dilemma regarding which side to pick, and is politically and economically susceptible to foreign influence and elite capture. Experts from different disciplines gathered and developed sophisticated strategic options to ensure that the country does not get caught between the wheels of great power competition.

FES Office for Regional Cooperation in Asia, in collaboration with the FES Philippines Office and with the Philippines’ Foundation for the National Interest, hosted a two-day national lab in Clark, Philippines. A diverse group of thought leaders and experts came together to discuss and analyse the geopolitical and geo-economic situation in the Philippines. The Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy Executive Education team facilitated the group's rigorous and meaningful discussions. From these discussions, the group highlighted geopolitical and geo-economic megatrends influencing the Philippines and crafted possible scenarios for the next five to ten years. Following this, the group developed strategic options to help the Philippines navigate a landscape riddled with uncertainty and challenges and emerge stronger.

The group identified key geopolitical and geo-economic megatrends that will affect the Philippines. The most pervasive and significant were the escalating US-China tensions and competition, manifested in conflicts surrounding the South China Sea and Taiwan. These cast great uncertainty on the future regional and global order. Domestically, the Philippines faces a dilemma regarding which side to pick, and is politically and economically susceptible to foreign, particularly Chinese, influence and elite capture.

Maritime security and the need for stronger protection of Philippine waters, especially the West Philippine Sea and its blue economy, was another key megatrend. The insecurity of Philippine waters disrupts trade and supply chains, reduces access to resources such as energy and food, exacerbates environmental degradation, worsens crime in international waters, limits freedom of navigation, and undermines national sovereignty. Another key megatrend identified was the influence of technological trends and digital automation on domestic affairs, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), information technology (IT) and military and defence technology. An equally important megatrend highlighted by the group was the vulnerability of the Philippines’ key stakeholders to foreign influences, which could jeopardize the integrity of elections and other democratic processes, thus threatening national security and sovereignty.

To read more about each of the scenarios and strategic options that the groups came up with, click scenario names below:

Scenario A: Guns and Roses

Scenario B: When Carabaos Fly

Scenario C: ASEAN Ascent

Scenario D: Blood and Iron

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