Southeast Asia’s plans to expand coal power are undermining the global energy shift

What is driving this trend against all long-term economic and environmental logic? We need to look beyond the region.

Government money in China, Japan and South Korea is still strongly financing coal expansion in Southeast Asia. Through treasury funds or state-owned utilities, these countries have put around USD 24 billion for around 16 gigawatts of coal projects in Indonesia, and USD 16 billion for around 15 GW in Vietnam, according to the Coal Finance Tracker by EndCoal.

At home, these countries have all three committed to net-zero emissions levels by mid-century. And Japan announced in July it was cutting back on its international funding of fossil fuel projects.

There are also signs of positive change in Southeast Asia. In 2020, the Philippines announced a moratorium on new coal, which could remove up to 10 GW of planned coal capacity from the current pipeline. Vietnam saw a record increase in solar capacity in 2019 and the first half of 2020, and is moving towards plans to limit coal and enhance renewable energy.

But even if possibilities for fossil fuel divestment are improved, policy uncertainty and other barriers persist across the region, potentially driving investments for renewables elsewhere.

Indonesia, as one of the major coal exporting countries of the world, supports its own coal mining and production industry with a range of subsidies and public finance. Thailand’s fossil fuels are focused on its large gas sector, which has strong ties to government. Vietnam added 5GW of renewable energy in 2019, but its coal pipeline is still huge. 

These vested interests have led to over-investment in electricity capacity in some areas. The high reserve capacity is justified by overestimated demand increases, while other parts still do not have access to reliable electricity.

These vested interests are driving the “cheap coal” myth. Unpacking this relationship is key to overcoming the barriers to investments and driving the transition to renewable energy.  We need to change the narrative, and this is where civil society organisations can play a pivotal role by publishing the right information to the right audience.

For example, the electrification of transport is making little progress in Southeast Asia, with the partial exception of two and three-wheelers. In contrast to China or India, there are no strong policies to support electric mobility, which would not only reduce air pollution but also increase the share of renewable energy. In the region, only Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand have electric vehicle deployment targets.